SurpriseTrade, the 800 Simple Moving Average

Trading Spot Forex, Equities and Futures using "Long Term Moving Averages" as Support and Resistance. The strategy consist of breakouts from the 800 or 200 simple moving average (sma) Bollinger Band. Will take into account the 800sma, 200 sma, the 50 sma and recent high/lows as support and resistance. Reversal patterns "double bottom" or "double top" near a Bollinger Band will trigger a trade.

Friday, November 1, 2013

Usd/Zar SurpriseTrade

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Eur/Try "Double Bottom" posted Oct 25

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Usd/Zar "Double Bottom" Break after FOMC Completed

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Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Aud/Chf "Cup and Handle" Reach Target

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Cup and Handle 8h Chart Zar/Jpy

The Zar/Jpy had made a "Cup and Handle" on 8h chart 200sma.  I expect a move till the recent high.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Aud/Chf cup and handle

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Monday, October 7, 2013

Testing the Box

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Aud/Chf 200sma SurpriseBox forming a Double Bottom

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Thursday, September 19, 2013

Another double bottom almost complete

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Another double bottom

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Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Double bottom Gbp/Cad almost at recent high

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Double bottom possibility tweeted two days ago.

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Saturday, June 22, 2013

Eur/Usd Bearish Engulfing June 2013


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Good in hourly, bad on weekly


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Thursday, June 13, 2013

Gain Mexican Dollar??

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Saturday, April 20, 2013

Is Eur/Usd to form a weekly cup and handle??

The Eur/Usd had bounced forming a trend-line on the 200sma area weekly chart. At present price is "trapped" between the 50sma and 200sma . Extreme speculation might suggest a possible head and shoulders in the future.  
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Wednesday, April 17, 2013




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Tuesday, April 2, 2013

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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Eur/Cad Almost in Target

The Eur/Cad had made a "gap down" out of the daily 800sma last week. Expected travel till the 200sma. Almost at target.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Monday, March 25, 2013

Accumulation on Eur/Cad Trade

The Eur/Cad had made a "gap down" out of the daily 800sma last week. Expected travel till the 200sma. Starting accumulating after the gap. Long candle out the gap today provides a opportunity to add to the trade.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Monday, March 18, 2013

Eur/Cad Break SurpriseBox with a Gap

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Recently Closed Trades













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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Pennant in Eur/Usd?




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Usd/Try trade




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Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Aud/Usd Morning Star?

The Aud/Usd had made a "morning star" on daily chart 800sma.  The moving average position was not verified with another trading package. Expected travel till the 200sma. For this trade to be sound, it has to retrace to at least 1.0250 as the possible stop is at the bottom of the hammer.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Reset of the Eur/Usd 800sma SurpriseBox

The Eur/Usd  4h 800sma SurpriseBox was reset as touched the sma again. Still expected to brake be SurpriseBox to the downside in the future.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Friday, March 1, 2013

Eur/Usd Position Update

The Eur/Usd had made a brake from the 800sma "Head and Shoulders Formation". Expected travel till the 200sma. At present more than half into the move. Just broke the  4h 800sma SurpriseBox to the downside at 8am est (lower graph).
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Eur/Usd "Neck Broken"

The Eur/Usd pair broke the 4h 200sma SurpriseBox and the daily 800sma right side of a "Head and Shoulders Formation". Expected travel and stop depicted below. Just my opinion.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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New SurpriseBox based on Neck Repositioning

The Eur/Usd pair had been followed since bearish engulfing pattern at the 200sma a week and half ago. A neck for a possible daily 800sma "head and shoulders pattern" was traced last week after a big move in the 4h chart believed to be a breakthrough. After the european ZEW data yesterday, this neck-line was broken to the upside (previous post). The neck was retraced on the daily chart. A new 200sma SurpriseBox was drafted on the 4h chart based on the retrace. Will add to my position with a brake to the downside or  will liquidate my current position with a brake to the upside (previous stated stop).
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Neck Retraced

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Thursday, February 14, 2013

Eur/Usd big move today, whats next!!

The Eur/Usd pair, as suspected, made a strong bearish move today. Expected to continue this trend. Last weekend analysis presented a bearish engulfing pattern in the weekly chart, just at the 200sma. Yesterday  on the 4h chart, made a bearish engulfing pattern just on the 50sma. Started my position then. This morning, completed a head and shoulders pattern seen in the 4h, 8h and daily charts. A clear entry, exit and stop provided by the pattern. Below are the strategy charts I am using. Again, this is my opinion; I do not recommend  only transmitting my thinking of the markets. I love technical analysis! 
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Nzd/Usd Target Reached

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Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Nzd/Usd Higher?

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Monday, February 11, 2013

Near Target Usd/Cad

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Sunday, February 10, 2013

Usd/Cad SurpriseTrade

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Eur/Usd Bearish Engulfing Pattern

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Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Dark Cloud Cover on the NzdChf

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Friday, February 1, 2013

Nzd/Chf gives more, more, more....

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Wednesday, January 30, 2013

The Nzd/Chf pair is expected to reach the bottom of the ARABF. Resistance at the 200sma may bring a short term trade. Notice a brake of the 200sma SurpriseBox using the 15min chart (second graph below). I expect it to travel to the bottom of yesturday's move.




Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com







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Second Target Reached Nzd/Chf SurpriseTrade

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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

First Target Reached Short Nzd/Chf

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Short Term Based on Long Term

The Nzd/Chf pair is expected to reach the bottom of the ARABF. Resistance at the 200sma may bring a short term trade. Notice a brake of the 200sma SurpriseBox using the 15min chart (second graph below). I expect it to travel to the bottom of yesturday's move.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Monday, January 28, 2013

Head and Shoulders on AAPL - Tweet

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Sunday, January 27, 2013

Ascending Right Angle Broadening Formation

The Nzd/Chf pair had been in a Ascending Right-Angle Broadening Formation (ARABF) since August 2012, around the 200sma. Last Week it reached the top of the range and made a bearish engulfing pattern. Expect to reach the bottom of the range. Stop will be at the top of the engulfing pattern.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Friday, January 4, 2013

Out at near target

Closed the Nzd/Usd as very near the target at the 200sma on the 15min chart.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Short Term Nzd/Usd Double Bottom

The Nzd/Usd completed a double bottom pattern after the US Jobs Report Today. This broke a 15 minutes SurpriseBox delimitated by the 800sma. Short term bullish till the 200sma.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs gets slaughtered

The Nzd/Cad trade hit first major resistance, the 50sma on the 8h chart. On the 4h chart it made a doji after a gap up followed by a bearish candle (second graph below). Although my belief is that it will reach target, above 0.83, the position was closed. It was over a 50:50 win to risk ratio. Bears makes money, Bulls makes money, Pigs get slaughtered.
Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only post public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com

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