AUD/USD Weekly Chart: Double Bottom Formation Developing

AUD/USD Weekly Chart: Double Bottom Formation Developing

Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal chart observations based on technical analysis. It is not financial advice or a trading recommendation.

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Today I’m looking at an interesting setup on the AUD/USD (Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar) pair, using the weekly chart. You can see the chart here: AUD/USD Weekly Chart.

Double Bottom Formation on the Weekly Chart

On the current chart, a double bottom pattern appears to be forming — a technical pattern that often signals the potential end of a downtrend and a possible trend reversal to the upside.

• The first bottom took place in January 2025.

• The second bottom occurred in April 2025, and was accompanied by a strong bullish engulfing candle, which suggests renewed buying interest.

A key point here is where the second bottom occurred: it touched the lower band of the Bollinger Bands calculated on the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is different from the standard Bollinger Band setting (which usually uses a 20-period moving average). In this case, I’m using a Bollinger Band applied to the much longer-term 200-week SMA, providing a perspective on extended price extremes in relation to the long-term trend.

Current Price Action

At this moment, price action is somewhat trapped between two key moving averages:

• The 8-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (short-term momentum)

• The 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) (medium-term trend)

Currently, the price is hovering in a tight range between approximately 0.64500 and 0.65000.

Potential Scenario Ahead

If the double bottom continues to play out, it’s reasonable to anticipate a move towards the 200-week SMA, which would serve as a natural upside target.

However, any bullish move should be approached with caution due to fundamental headwinds:

• US Dollar interest rate: 4.50%

• Australian Dollar interest rate: 3.85%

Because the USD yield remains higher, this makes any potential carry trade less favorable, which can weigh on AUD/USD upside momentum or contribute to additional volatility.

Final Notes

As always, these are just my personal technical observations based on chart patterns and moving averages. Trading always carries risk, and no setup is guaranteed. Please view this post as educational and not as financial advice.

BTC/USD reached expected target

The Bitcoin/USD pair 

• Bitcoin USD reached the expected target of approximately 108,000 (at present over 110,000).
• Although at all time high, it at present in resistance area, technically, future behavior uncertain at this immediate moment. 

Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only make public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Info only, not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com and ForexGuy.org@gmail.com

Bitcoin Double Bottom

 

Bitcoin Break of Double Bottom escape from Support

The Bitcoin/USD pair 

• Was in a roaring uptrend since after the elections. 
• Corrected to prior resistance now support at 74,500
• At present making what it will likely be a completed double bottom formation
• If it breaks 88,000 resistance, will likely travel to approximately 108,000

Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only make public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Info only, not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com and ForexGuy.org@gmail.com

Cup and Handle Formation in Bitcoin

The Bitcoin/USD pair had been in a roaring uptrend since after the elections. This week it made a retracement as it was near the psychological resistance of 100,000. Now it formed a Cup and Handle formation out of the 200sma (red line) as support in the 2 hour chart. The handle support is the 50 sma (interrupted blue line). I expect to retest the resistance at the 100,000 mark soon.

Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only make public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Info only, not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com and ForexGuy.org@gmail.com

Double Bottom ZarJpy Weekly Chart

The Zar/Jpy pair broke the 200sma Lower Bollinger Band box to the upside. It formed a Double Bottom Formation. Initially price was trapped between the 50sma (dotted blue line) and the lower band. Upside price move out of the latter provides extra evidence of a true breakout. Expected to travel till the 200sma base (red line) on the next several months. Opportunities may arise on shorter term 800sma graphs taking into consideration this bullish bias. 

Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only make public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com and ForexGuy.org@gmail.com

Gbp/Cad 4 Hour Chart "Head and Shoulders"

The Gbp/Cad pair had broken the 800sma SurpriseBox on the 4 hour chart. Formed a "Head and Shoulders pattern". A long candle broke the neck along with piercing the 200sma. Now on a rebound after initial descent and close to testing the neck, 800sma and right shoulder area. 

Disclaimer: I trade the patterns depicted either at the entry point stated (e.g. trading channel, breakouts) or afterward. Although my trades are based on technical analysis, trading forex is a risky activity and may produce significant monetary loss. I only make public the trades that I am considering to make, or made and the rational for them. Not intended necessarily as trading recommendations. By SurpriseTrade@gmail.com